IMF Warns AI Could Disrupt 40% of Jobs Worldwide

The International Monetary Fund has warned that artificial intelligence could disrupt roughly 40 per cent of jobs globally, urging governments to prepare workers for a transition that is already reshaping labour markets.

The warning, part of the fund's analysis released around its Annual Meetings, highlights both the promise and the peril of the AI revolution. The IMF has estimated that about 40 per cent of global employment is exposed to AI, with advanced economies facing greater exposure than emerging markets because of their reliance on cognitive and service-sector work.

Exposure vs displacement

The IMF's figure refers to exposure, not inevitable job loss. For many workers, AI will augment rather than replace their tasks, boosting productivity. But for others, particularly those in routine clerical, administrative and customer-service roles, the technology could displace labour outright. The risk is that the gains from AI accrue to capital and highly skilled workers while less skilled workers lose out, widening inequality.

Nigeria and other developing economies face a more complicated picture. Their exposure to AI-driven disruption is lower in aggregate, but they also have less capacity to retrain workers and build safety nets. A large informal sector means many affected workers fall outside formal protections and training programmes.

AI will not destroy all jobs, but it will destroy some, and it will change most. The policy question is who gets to benefit and who gets left behind.

The policy response

The IMF has called on governments to invest in education and training, strengthen social safety nets and reform tax systems to ensure that AI-generated gains are shared. It has also urged international cooperation, because the technology and its risks cross borders.

For Nigeria, the recommendations translate into familiar challenges: underfunded schools, limited vocational training capacity and a large informal economy. Building the skills needed for an AI-augmented economy — in data, digital literacy and adaptable problem-solving — will require sustained investment that a country with tight fiscal space may struggle to afford.

An opportunity too

Yet the IMF's message is not only pessimistic. AI can raise productivity, expand access to services and create new industries. For Africa, where labour is abundant and services are often scarce, AI could help deliver education, healthcare and financial services to populations currently underserved. Telemedicine, automated tutoring and AI-driven credit scoring are already being deployed.

The challenge is to capture those benefits while managing the disruption. The countries that succeed will be those that invest in people, adapt their institutions and resist the temptation to either ban the technology or adopt it uncritically. The 40 per cent figure is a warning, but it is also a call to act before the disruption arrives.