Nigeria Trade Surplus Doubles to N12.6 Trillion in Q2 2026

Nigeria recorded a merchandise trade surplus of N12.60 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, more than double the N6.26 trillion recorded in the same period a year earlier, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Total trade stood at N41.44 trillion in the quarter. Exports rose to N27.02 trillion, up 18.77% from a year earlier, while imports stood at N14.42 trillion, leaving the surplus at N12.60 trillion, a 101.32% year-on-year increase.

Non-crude exports now lead

For the first time in recent quarters, non-crude exports accounted for the larger share of outbound trade. Crude oil exports were valued at N12.91 trillion, or 47.79% of total exports, while non-crude exports reached N14.11 trillion, representing 52.21%. The shift reflects both a stronger contribution from manufactured goods, agricultural produce and solid minerals, and the volatile base effects of oil prices.

Exports of solid minerals jumped to N146.91 billion, up 90.03% compared with the previous quarter, while intra-African trade remained a bright spot, with exports to African countries valued at N6.65 trillion.

India remained Nigeria's top export destination in the quarter, taking goods worth N3.29 trillion, or 12.17% of total exports.

Import concentration

On the import side, China retained its position as Nigeria's largest source of goods, supplying 41.02% of total imports. The concentration of imports in a single market is a recurring concern for policy makers who want to diversify supply chains and deepen domestic manufacturing.

Economists said the widening surplus is a welcome signal for the current account and for the naira, but warned that headline trade figures flatter an economy still dependent on a narrow export base and volatile commodity prices. They also noted that a large share of imports comprises machinery, fuel and intermediate goods needed for production, meaning import growth can itself be a sign of recovering activity.

The bigger picture

Taken with a first-quarter surplus of about N7.5 trillion, the data points to two consecutive quarters of robust external balances in 2026. That has helped stabilise the foreign exchange market and lifted gross external reserves past $53 billion.

Whether the surplus can be sustained depends on oil output, the pace of non-oil export diversification and the strength of domestic demand. For now, the numbers offer the government a firmer fiscal and external cushion heading into the final quarter of the year.

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics foreign trade report (Q2 2026, released September 8, 2026); VON; Daily Post; Business Post; Leadership Newspaper.