African Equities End Mixed as Investors Turn to South Africa's Mini-Budget

African equities ended Thursday's session in negative territory overall, with more stocks falling than rising across 17 exchanges, even as a handful of markets posted gains — a divided tape that leaves investors focused on next week's South Africa's medium-term budget as the continent's next major catalyst.

Across Mansa Markets' tracked exchanges, 128 stocks advanced, 137 declined and 269 were unchanged. Uganda's exchange led the published index tape at +0.75 per cent, while Ghana's index was the weakest at -1.43 per cent. At the individual stock level the spread was far wider: Egypt's Sabaa International led cross-market gainers at 17.15 per cent, while Caixa Económica de Cabo Verde was the biggest decliner, down 17.24 per cent.

Underneath the index headline, the pattern was the familiar one of a market without a single direction — and a region waiting on external decisions rather than domestic data.

Breadth tilts negative across the continent

Nigeria's exchange captured the mood. Decliners beat gainers 33 to 28 on a day the NGX All-Share Index rose just 0.01 per cent to 247,707.13 points, lifting market capitalisation to about ₦160.83 trillion. Gainers included Zichis Agro Allied Industries, up 10 per cent, Austin Laz at 9.92 per cent, CWG at 9.86 per cent and Omatek at 9.77 per cent; Enamelware Nigeria fell 9.95 per cent and NASCON Allied Industries dropped 9.48 per cent.

Elsewhere, performance remained mixed. The divergence reflects a market in which capital is rotating among individual stories rather than flowing in on a broad regional theme — and in which investors are cautious before the next round of policy signals from the continent's largest economies.

South Africa's revenue windfall

The most-watched event is Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's medium-term budget policy statement, tabled on 21 October. Bank of America has told clients that South Africa's revenue for the 2026/27 financial year could exceed February's budget assumptions by about R70 billion, driven largely by stronger corporate tax collections in the gold and precious metals sectors.

Expenditure growth is running above Treasury's projections — up about 4.6 per cent, against a 2.5 per cent assumption in the February budget — but the bank expects that to be more than offset by the revenue windfall, producing a net fiscal improvement of around R20 billion and supporting a deficit forecast of roughly 3.5 per cent of GDP, against the government's target of 3.7 per cent.

Bank of America flagged the future of the social relief of distress grant as the principal medium-term fiscal uncertainty, warning that making it permanent or indexing it to inflation could be materially more expensive.

The rand's quiet resilience

Currency markets have been whipsawed. The rand weakened after US consumer inflation surged to 3.7 per cent in September, reviving expectations of further Federal Reserve increases, and traded around R16.54 to the dollar on Thursday afternoon as Brent crude stayed above $100, straining South Africa's fuel-import bill.

But with the dollar sliding from an 18-month peak on Friday, the rand firmed, and investors are now positioning for the budget. South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the rand has held up well despite the shock of the Iran war, reflecting more confidence in the country's economic outlook — and added that continued resilience will depend on macroeconomic policy staying on track.

The central bank has raised its policy rate by a cumulative 50 basis points to 7.25 per cent since April to defend the currency against energy-driven inflation, leaving monetary policy moderately restrictive into the budget.

Why global funds are watching

The wider significance is capital allocation. African markets are being judged against each other for benchmarked flows, and index classification decisions — as Indonesia's abrupt downgrade proposal this week showed — can move billions in a single session.

A credible budget that keeps the deficit within the expenditure ceiling would support both the rand and South African government bonds, where the 10-year yield is up about 70 basis points this year. A slippage on spending or on the grants question would do the reverse and ripple through sentiment toward the whole region.

Traders also expect the currencies of Kenya and Uganda to come under pressure over the coming week, while Ghana's could extend gains and Nigeria's little change. That currency outlook, alongside the budget, will frame whether this week's mixed equity tape resolves into a regional move or stays fragmented into stock-specific trades.