CBN's First-Half FX Sales Fall to Lowest in 19 Years as Naira Stabilises

The Central Bank of Nigeria's foreign-exchange sales in the first half of 2026 fell to their lowest level in 19 years, a decline that analysts say reflects both the relative stability of the naira and a deliberate pullback from heavy intervention in the currency market.

The drop in official FX sales marks a significant shift from the peak-intervention years, when the central bank routinely supplied dollars to the market to manage volatility and clear backlogs of unmet demand. As the naira's official and parallel rates have converged, the pressure on the apex bank to act as the market's principal supplier has eased.

The retreat is, in one sense, a sign of normalisation. A functioning foreign-exchange market should not depend indefinitely on the central bank as the dominant seller. But the scale of the fall also raises questions about whether the private sector has stepped in to fill the gap, and whether the improved stability is durable or simply a function of lower demand.

Why CBN sales fell

Three forces are at work. First, the naira has traded within a narrower band, reducing the need for defensive intervention. Second, higher oil output and improved external buffers have supported supply, easing the liquidity strain that once forced the bank to sell dollars routinely. Third, and less comfortably, import demand has been compressed by weak purchasing power and high interest rates, so there is simply less pressure on the market.

The improvement in reserves has been a headline achievement of the reform period, with external reserves at record highs and net buffers rising. Lower intervention is consistent with that picture: a central bank that sells fewer dollars is often a central bank under less pressure.

The risk of reading too much into it

Falling intervention is not the same as a self-sustaining market. If the central bank is selling less because demand is weak rather than because private supply is strong, the equilibrium is fragile. A rebound in import demand, an oil-price shock or a shift in portfolio flows could quickly restore pressure and force the bank back into the market. The test of a genuine transition is whether non-oil exporters, diaspora remittances and foreign portfolio investors are supplying enough liquidity on their own.

What it means for the naira

For now, the lower intervention footprint supports the narrative that the currency regime is maturing. But it also removes a visible backstop. Investors will watch the coming months for evidence that the private market can absorb shocks without the central bank returning as the buyer or seller of last resort.