Fitch revises Nigeria's outlook to positive as reserves pass $54.9 billion

Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on Nigeria's Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings to Positive from Stable on 9 October, while affirming the ratings at B. The change, the agency said, reflects ongoing reform of the policy framework and greater confidence that momentum will not be derailed by the coming election cycle.

Monetary and exchange-rate reforms have supported greater naira flexibility, disinflation and faster-than-expected foreign-currency reserve accumulation, Fitch said, with improved reserve quality enhancing the country's resilience to shocks.

Reserves at the highest level in years

Nigeria's gross international reserves stood at about $54.9 billion in late September, up sharply from roughly $32 billion in mid-April 2024, according to figures cited by the ratings action and subsequent reporting.

Fitch also pointed to firmer crude production: output excluding condensates rose 10 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter and averaged about 1.52 million barrels a day, meeting the OPEC target since May 2026.

The Ministry of Finance welcomed the action, describing it in a statement as evidence of growing confidence in the durability of economic reforms.

What would a ratings upgrade take?

Fitch forecast average annual inflation to moderate to 15.4 percent in 2026 — less than half the 2024 level, but still far above the median for B-rated sovereigns — and said it expects the central bank to remain cautious in easing while food, fuel and external risks persist.

Sources

Fitch Ratings, “Fitch Revises Nigeria's Outlook to Positive; Affirms at 'B'” (9 Oct 2026); BusinessDay, “Fitch revises Nigeria's credit outlook to positive as reserves rise to $54.9bn” (10 Oct 2026); The Whistler (10 Oct 2026); Nigerian NewsDirect (10 Oct 2026); Arise News (11 Oct 2026).