Nigeria's Dollar Trading Slumps 22% to $2.62 Billion as Forward Deals Plunge

The value of dollars traded in Nigeria's foreign exchange market fell 22.23 per cent to $2.62 billion in the week ended October 16, 2026, from $3.37 billion the previous week, as spot trading slowed and forward transactions dropped sharply, according to FMDQ data on transactions between authorised banks and their customers.

Total trading declined by $749.15 million, reversing part of the 98.58 per cent jump recorded in the week ended October 9. Average daily turnover for the whole market fell 22.23 per cent to $524.14 million from $673.97 million.

Forward market contracts collapse

Forward transactions — contracts that let businesses and investors agree today on an exchange rate for a future purchase or sale — fell 81.14 per cent to $24.89 million from $131.95 million. Forwards accounted for only 0.95 per cent of total turnover, down from 3.92 per cent a week earlier.

Average daily forward trading collapsed to $4.98 million from $26.39 million. Forward turnover has swung violently in recent weeks, falling to $64.73 million in the week ended October 2, rising to $131.95 million, then dropping to $24.89 million last week. The weekly figure measures contracts executed during the period, not outstanding forward positions.

Spot trading slows but still dominates

Spot transactions — purchases and sales for near-immediate delivery — fell 19.83 per cent to $2.60 billion from $3.24 billion, a decline of $642.09 million. Spot nevertheless accounted for 99.05 per cent of turnover, up from 96.08 per cent, and now makes up roughly 104 times forward turnover, compared with about 24.5 times a week earlier.

Spot trading explained about 85.7 per cent of the dollar decline, while forwards made up about 14.3 per cent. Weekly turnover remains about 54 per cent above the $1.70 billion recorded in the shortened week ended October 2.

Forwards still support naira appreciation

Despite the collapse in forward volumes, Cordros Securities reported that the naira appreciated across forward tenors: the one-month contract strengthened by 1 basis point to N1,352.89 per dollar, the three-month by 8 basis points to N1,370.80, the six-month by 22 basis points to N1,436.75 and the one-year by 65 basis points to N1,531.01.

The spot rate depreciated 0.1 per cent week on week to N1,333.09 per dollar as renewed domestic demand outweighed a $430.60 million Central Bank intervention during the week. Cordros expects the naira broadly stable near current levels, supported by strong reserves and a current account surplus, with downside risks from lower domestic yields and tighter global conditions.