Bitcoin ETFs Suffer Worst Outflows Since June as BTC Tests Its 200-Day Average

Bitcoin is trading near $75,000 on Monday after sliding overnight to $73,761 — its weakest level since August — and the damage was amplified by a $1.28 billion weekly exodus from US spot bitcoin ETFs, the worst institutional outflow since late June, according to SoSoValue data cited by CoinDesk.

The 24-hour tape was violent in both directions. More than $1 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated as the token plunged and rebounded, with $913 million of that longs — traders betting prices would rise, per CoinGlass. Ether's breakdown was deeper: the second-largest token crashed below $2,100 before bouncing to about $2,144, closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time since August 18 and drawing roughly $500 million of liquidations on its own.

The institutional buyer has left the building

The ETF flows are the story inside the story. Spot bitcoin funds — the proxy for institutional demand that powered the 2024-25 bull run — registered a net outflow of $1.282 billion last week, their second straight week of redemptions, taking year-to-date flows to a negative $914 million. Ethereum funds lost $365 million in the same week. Four of five trading days were red.

The arithmetic matters for the bull thesis. ETF demand had turned positive for the year on September 22 after more than $6 billion of inflows since early August; five weeks later, that cushion is gone. As CoinDesk's markets desk put it, bulls can no longer rely on ETF flows — without renewed inflows, a sustained rally has no visible buyer of last resort.

Why crypto is selling off now

Three forces converged. The first is regulatory: the Democratic sweep of Congress has soured crypto's US policy outlook, with several Democratic lawmakers publicly sceptical of the industry and pushing tighter anti-money-laundering and risk-management rules. The second is monetary: stronger-than-expected US jobs data lifted December Fed rate-hike odds toward 80 per cent, and a hawkish Fed is structurally hostile to long-duration risk assets. The third is the AI equity unwind, which has dragged the Nasdaq to a five-week losing streak and pulled correlated crypto lower — puncturing the popular argument that money would rotate into bitcoin if the AI trade fizzled.

Derivatives data show the deleveraging in motion. Futures volume surged more than 200 per cent to $180 billion in 24 hours while open interest fell 3 per cent to about $127 billion — positions closing, not opening. Bitcoin's one-week implied volatility jumped to about 43 per cent from 33, and the put-skew — the premium paid for downside protection — widened to 13 per cent from 2 per cent.

The technical map from here

Positioning data add a second-order risk: because open interest fell while funding stayed positive through the dip, a base of stubborn longs remains in the market, and each subsequent test of support forces fresh liquidations of exactly the kind that amplified Sunday's swing. Markets deleverage in steps, not one.

Levels are unusually clean. Bitcoin sits between its 200-day average support near $73,150 and 100-day average resistance at $77,430; ether must defend the $2,060-2,100 zone or confront a deeper structure break. Tuesday's US CPI is the macro pivot — a softer print that pulls yields lower would offer risk assets a tailwind, though analysts at Marex caution that lower yields alone are "not enough to offset persistent ETF outflows."

The global crypto market capitalisation stands near $2.53 trillion after a 3 per cent slide, with altcoins hit hardest: XRP down 6.4 per cent and on the cusp of single digits, solana and cardano off 2-4 per cent.

The Nigerian and African angle

For African markets, the read-through is regulatory more than price-based. Nigeria — one of the world's deepest retail crypto jurisdictions — spent the same week formalising its own regime, with the CBN setting N10 billion and N15 billion capital floors for stablecoin issuers. Global turbulence plus local clarity is the combination that historically repositions activity toward regulated local rails; the volatility, meanwhile, is a fresh argument for the reserve-backed, next-day-redemption discipline the new rules impose.