Business confidence in Nigeria slips to 13.4 points but stays positive, CBN survey projects acceleration to 36.6 by March 2027

Nigerian businesses remain optimistic about the road ahead, even as the near-term reading of their mood dipped slightly. The Central Bank of Nigeria's September 2026 Business Expectations Survey placed the Business Confidence Index at 13.4 points, a marginal decline from 14.8 points in August, and said respondents remained enthusiastic about their prospects. The index, which aggregates the views of leading firms across industry, services and agriculture, has now stayed firmly in positive territory through the second half of the year.

What the survey's projections revealed was a sharper upward trajectory than the monthly index itself. Respondents expect the reading to climb to 23.6 points in October 2026, extend to 29.9 points by December and reach 36.6 points by March 2027, indicating that firms regard the recent moderation as a pause rather than a turning point.

What is driving optimism

The factors businesses cited are closely mapped to the reforms of the past 18 months. Greater economic diversification topped the list, with 18.9 per cent of respondents attributing their bullishness to it, while increased demand accounted for 29.3 per cent of the positive sentiment and improved access to finance added 13.5 per cent. Continued appreciation and stability of the naira played a supporting role in firms' forward expectations, along with expansionary fiscal measures now working through infrastructure spending.

The sector breakdown sharpened the picture. The electricity, gas and water supply sector recorded the highest Business Confidence Index at 69.6 points, along with the strongest prospects for expansion, a reading that reflects the bankability that independent power producers and gas suppliers have gained as tariff reform and financing structures mature in the private market. Confidence remained positive across all surveyed sectors, and the construction sector posted among the strongest expansion outlooks in related exercises, a sign that infrastructure demand is a central engine of business optimism.

[irp][irp][irp][irp][irp]

Constraints have not softened, but their weight has shifted

Businesses' list of concerns is familiar but has not moved far from the pattern of recent months. Multiple and high taxation was again identified as the most significant constraint on business operations, scoring 67.1 index points. Insecurity, at 66.2 points, came second, followed by high interest rates at 64.3 points, an unfavourable political climate at 61.8 points and high bank charges at 61.5 points. Competition was flagged at 60.2 points, while unclear economic laws and an unfavourable operating environment each registered 58.7 points.

That combination, positive expectations paired with concrete operating complaints, describes an economy where firms see demand and reform momentum, but where the cost of doing business, from taxes to the price of borrowing at a policy rate of 23 per cent, still conditions each investment decision. The survey's own projections suggest firms believe those constraints are being absorbed rather than expanding.

What the BCI trajectory means

The trajectory the survey projects, from 13.4 in September to 36.6 by the first quarter of 2027, is an unusually bullish enterprise forecast at a time when Nigeria's macro dashboard shows reserves near an 18-year high of $55.25 billion, inflation easing to 14.63 per cent and a current account surplus supporting currency stability. Firms conducting investment planning in that environment gain a tailwind that pure price stability alone cannot provide.

The Business Expectations Survey is conducted monthly among a sample of leading firms drawn from the central bank and the National Bureau of Statistics' business establishment frame, and its methodology was enhanced in April 2026 when the weighted diffusion index moved to a five-point scale. The change allows more nuanced reporting of respondents' sentiment, but it also means month-on-month comparisons need care when back-issues are read against older survey rounds.

The survey's cumulative message through the fourth quarter is that Nigerian firms see 2027 shaping up as a year in which demand is stronger, financing is easier to price, and the economy's remaining frictions, taxes and insecurity chief among them, are being worked on by fiscal authorities. Whether the projected acceleration to 36.6 points materialises will depend partly on how effectively the next budget cycle addresses the multiple-taxation complaint, which businesses have ranked first for consecutive months. It will also depend on the trajectory of interest rates, because a policy rate of 23 per cent leaves borrowing conferences short of the expansion budget that medium-sized firms would like to fund. Whichever way those levers move, the September survey shows the mood inside Nigerian boardrooms swinging firmly towards growth.