Nigeria's Inflation Falls to 14.63%, Lowest Since October 2020, as Food Prices Ease

Nigeria's headline inflation rate fell to 14.63 per cent in September 2026, down from 15.39 per cent in August and the lowest annual reading since October 2020, according to the National Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index released on Thursday.

The September figure represents the fourth consecutive monthly decline in headline inflation and a 6.35 percentage point drop from the 20.98 per cent recorded in September 2025. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose by just 0.06 per cent, a sharp deceleration from the 0.71 per cent increase recorded in August.

Food prices did the heavy lifting

The disinflation was driven overwhelmingly by food. Month-on-month food inflation turned negative in September, falling by 1.55 per cent after a 1.02 per cent increase in August — a 2.57 percentage point swing. The NBS attributed the decline to lower average prices of local rice, maize flour, guinea corn flour, eggs, onions, palm oil, potatoes, okra, tomatoes and plantain.

Year-on-year food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent, modestly lower than the 20.16 per cent of September 2025. The average annual food inflation rate for the 12 months ending September 2026 fell to 15.72 per cent, down sharply from 28.37 per cent a year earlier.

Core pressures still visible

Underneath the headline improvement, core inflation — which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy — edged up to 12.95 per cent year on year, though it remained far below the 22.11 per cent of September 2025. The NBS noted divergent trends within the basket, with restaurants and hotels, transportation and miscellaneous goods recording faster price growth even as education, health and recreation categories cooled.

The 12-month average headline inflation rate for the period ending September 2026 stood at 15.80 per cent, an 11.51 percentage point decline from the 27.31 per cent of the preceding year.

Policy implications

Four straight months of disinflation strengthen the case that the tight monetary stance and naira stability are transmitting into consumer prices. They also complicate the political economy of reform: households that lived through much higher inflation still experience the cumulative price level, even as the annual rate cools. The sustainability of the trend will depend on harvest conditions, energy costs and continued currency stability through the final quarter.