Gold Climbs Above $4,180 as Fed Remarks and AI Selloff Drive Haven Demand

Gold extended its gains on Monday, rising above $4,180 an ounce as remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh prompted traders to scale back expectations of an imminent rate hike, while a global equity selloff linked to doubts about artificial intelligence spending drove fresh haven demand.

The spot price reached about $4,185 an ounce on Monday, up roughly 0.45 per cent from the previous session, according to market data. The move followed a nearly 1 per cent rally late last week, when bullion traded around $4,150 amid a broader flight to safety.

Warsh comments reshape rate expectations

Warsh's dovish remarks arrived as the Federal Reserve entered its blackout period ahead of the October 27–28 policy meeting. Markets now price an approximately 84 per cent probability that rates will be left unchanged at the gathering, with traders scaling back earlier bets that the committee could deliver another hike.

Gold tends to benefit when rate expectations soften, because the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset falls as expected real yields decline. Lower bond yields, themselves a product of the same repricing, have reinforced the bid for bullion.

AI doubts and geopolitical risk add support

The equity pressure has come disproportionately from technology shares, where investors are questioning the sustainability of massive AI-related capital expenditure in a high-interest-rate environment. That equity weakness has spilled into bonds and commodities, with gold absorbing haven flows.

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have kept the risk premium in the market elevated, while violent protests in France and other European countries have added to broader uncertainty — a cocktail that historically supports bullion.

What comes next for gold

Attention now turns to the Fed's late-October meeting and any signals about the path into December, where the probability of a rate increase has climbed sharply in some pricing models. For gold, the path of real yields, the dollar and equity market stress will matter more than any single data point, with the metal still down about 4 per cent from its levels a year ago despite the recent rebound.