Nigeria revives NNPC, NLNG listing plan in push for N750trn market

Nigeria has revived plans to list the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Nigeria LNG Limited on the stock exchange as part of a ten-year strategy to expand the country’s equity market to N750 trillion, or about $500 billion, by 2036.

Vice-President Kashim Shettima outlined the ambition at a capital markets conference in Abuja on October 19, according to accounts published on October 22 by Energy News Africa Plus and Africa Business Insight. Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said listing shares in the two state-linked energy companies could broaden investor participation, improve transparency and allow more Nigerians to own stakes in major national assets.

The proposal is significant because NNPC and NLNG are among the largest energy institutions in Africa, yet neither is traded on the Nigerian Exchange. Their listing would add substantial market capitalisation and could deepen the exchange’s energy sector, which is currently dominated by Seplat Energy, Aradel Holdings, Oando and TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria.

The scale of the ambition

Nigeria’s total equity market capitalisation stood at N159.07 trillion on October 22. Reaching N750 trillion by 2036 would require the market to grow to nearly five times its current size over the next decade, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of roughly 16.8 per cent. That is ambitious but not implausible for a market that has already risen by more than 57 per cent year to date.

Much of the recent rally has come from re-rating rather than new listings. Bank recapitalisation, stronger corporate earnings and increased domestic participation have lifted valuations. A wave of large initial public offerings would add a different kind of growth: new shares, new issuers and a wider investor base.

The government’s strategy appears to rely on both. NNPC and NLNG would bring scale and international visibility, while a broader pipeline of private-sector listings could deepen liquidity. But the plan is at an early stage. Neither company has announced a listing date or disclosed the size of any stake that could be offered.

NNPC’s listing remains uncertain

The Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 converted NNPC from a state-owned corporation into a commercially operated company, creating a legal framework for a future listing. The reform was intended to strengthen commercial independence, improve accountability and prepare the company for public-market scrutiny.

Progress has been slow. NNPC’s group chief executive, Bayo Ojulari, indicated in July 2026 that the listing could be postponed until 2028. The company has said it is working to improve corporate governance and financial reporting, two areas that investors will examine closely before committing capital.

The financial record is mixed. NNPC’s annual profit rose 33 per cent in 2025, but profit fell 35.4 per cent to about N2.28 trillion, or roughly $1.5 billion, in the first half of 2026. A listed NNPC would need to explain the drivers of that decline, including production volumes, crude prices, refinery operations and the cost of its obligations to the federation.

Its sheer size also raises questions about free float and valuation. A listing of a small minority stake could create a public share price without meaningfully changing ownership or liquidity. A larger offering could test the market’s capacity to absorb new supply. The government has not indicated which approach it prefers.

NLNG’s shareholder complexity

NLNG presents a different challenge. NNPC holds 49 per cent of the gas producer, while Shell, TotalEnergies and Eni collectively own 51 per cent. The government cannot determine a listing independently of its foreign partners. Any proposal would need to address their ownership rights, board representation, dividend expectations and exit provisions.

NLNG is one of Nigeria’s most successful export businesses, with long-term gas supply contracts and a global customer base. A listing could unlock value for the government and give international investors direct exposure to Nigeria’s gas sector. But it could also complicate the company’s existing governance and commercial arrangements.

No agreement from NLNG’s foreign shareholders on a potential listing has been publicly announced. That makes the proposal a strategic ambition rather than a transaction with a timetable.

What a listing would change

For the Nigerian Exchange, the benefits would extend beyond market capitalisation. Large state-linked listings could attract foreign institutional investors who currently access Nigerian energy exposure through offshore bonds, private companies or London-listed Seplat. They could also create new index constituents, derivatives and research coverage.

For the government, a listing could provide a politically attractive way to broaden ownership of national assets. It could also impose market discipline on companies that have historically operated outside the full disclosure regime of a listed company. That is a potential benefit, but it is also a risk for managers who are not accustomed to quarterly reporting and shareholder scrutiny.

For investors, the key questions are valuation, governance and free float. A listing at a valuation that favours the government could leave little upside for minority shareholders. A listing with weak governance could expose them to related-party transactions and policy interference. The credibility of the process will depend on independent advisers, clear disclosure and a price discovered through genuine demand.

The execution test

Nigeria’s capital market has the depth to absorb a large offering only if the transaction is structured carefully. Domestic pension funds, banks and asset managers have substantial naira liquidity, but they also have concentration limits and fiduciary duties. Foreign investors can add demand, but they will price in currency risk, liquidity risk and Nigeria’s country risk premium.

The government’s ten-year target is therefore less a forecast than a policy benchmark. It will be judged by whether NNPC and NLNG actually list, whether the offerings are priced fairly and whether the market develops the infrastructure needed to support larger volumes. Without those steps, the N750 trillion target will remain a headline ambition rather than a credible roadmap.

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